Support for Trump among Black Americans Is Declining
Black folks still know what’s up.
As the presumptive Republican nominee for president, Donald Trump and his campaign know that gaining support from Black people is crucial to his re-election bid.
To that end, Trump has suggested that Black people can identify with him because he is facing legal issues and has a mug shot. A news commentator and Trump supporter also suggested that Black people just love sneakers, so they’ll see the gold sneakers Trump is selling as an effective outreach.
Some news outlets have also been reporting a rise in Black support for Trump (see here and here for example).
But recent polling by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) suggests that the Trump campaign needs to rethink its heavy-handed and superficial tactics of appealing to Black people.
Overall the percentage of Black Americans who have favorable views of Trump has decreased from 19 percent in 2020 to 14 percent in 2023.1
By gender Black men have dropped their support for Trump from 25 percent to 16 percent. Black women, only 15 percent of whom had favorable views of Trump in 2020, dropped down to 12 percent.
Black Protestants who viewed Trump favorably tumbled from 19 percent in 2020 to 12 percent in 2023, while other Black religious groups remained essentially unchanged.
Melissa Deckman, CEO of PRRI said,
“There is simply no evidence that support for Trump is growing among African Americans -- in fact, his favorability numbers have gone down across the board from 2020.”
Meanwhile support for President Biden has also fallen. Black Americans who hold favorable views of Biden dropped from 73 percent in 2020 to 64 percent in 2023.
The most precipitous drop in favorable views for Biden was among Black women who went from 77 percent down to 64 percent.
It should also be noted that these numbers represent Black Americans in general, and are not specifically about Black voters.
Nevertheless, these poll data show that Black people see through the Trump campaign’s efforts at outreach.
I’m digging into the data leading up the the 2024 presidential election. If you want to see more articles like, this would you consider becoming a paid subscriber today?
Trump and Republicans in general have struggled for decades to gain support among Black Americans. That’s not new. But far-right politicians and operatives are increasingly using Black faces to promote their white Christian nationalist agenda.
Think of Herschel Walker, North Carolina candidate for Governor, Mark Robinson, Candace Owens, Rep. Byron Donalds, and Tim Scott to name a few.
The far-right uses the presence of Black people in their ranks to deflect accusations of racism even while they support policies and ideas that most Black Americans oppose.
These few Black Trump supporters should not be viewed as signs of a growing trend of Black preference for the far-right but as exceptions that prove the rule—Black Americans are not persuaded by the Republican platform.
The ruse isn’t working.
Black people are not fooled when other Black people are trotted out to represent ideas antithetical to Black freedom and multi-racial democracy.
The story that demands our attention is not Black support—or lack thereof—for Trump, instead it is why support for Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, and the Democratic party is declining.
Whether due to concerns about his age (while also remembering that Trump will be 78 years old this June), or how the Biden administration is handling the genocide in Gaza, or general disillusionment with the party itself, Black people are not confident that their longtime and crucial allegiance to the Democratic party is resulting in meaningful progress.
Neither party should take Black support for granted and both need to work hard to address the core concerns of Black Americans.
Politicians in the United States have a long history of playing games with Black votes and for many Black Americans, playtime is over.
Do any of these data surprise you or spark any questions? Comment below.
Data is from the American Values Atlas (AVA). In 2020 the full sample size (all races/ethnicities) was 10,237 with a margin of error of +/- 1 1.% In 2023, the full sample size was 22,465 with a margin of error of +/- 2.7%.